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The opposite day I recorded the annual predictions wrap-up with Laurent Segalen and Gerard Reid of Redefining Power. I’d joined the enjoyable final yr for the primary time after beginning up the Redefining Power—Tech sub-channel, judging their predictions from the earlier yr and including predictions of my very own. One in all my predictions for 2025 was that there was going to be a massacre in hydrogen for transportation.
It’s not going to assist that it’s unlawful to name hydrogen vehicles, ferries, or rail zero emissions and even low-emissions in North America, Europe, or Australia, with each Canada and the EU permitting non-governmental organizations to deliver fees. In spite of everything, hydrogen in transportation is definitely fairly excessive emissions. In the absolute best case, it’s many multiples of battery or grid-tied electrical, and in common circumstances near diesel. In some circumstances, it’s worse than diesel.
Why? Nicely, manufacturing hydrogen, in the absolute best state of affairs, requires about 3 times as a lot inexperienced electrical energy as simply utilizing the electrical energy in automobiles by way of batteries, so no matter emissions are associated to the electrical energy are tripled. Additionally, hydrogen is a greenhouse fuel, albeit not directly by stopping the methane in pure fuel or burped out of cows from degrading, with 13 to 37 instances the efficiency of carbon dioxide. And because the smallest or second smallest molecule — relying on whether or not you ask chemists or physicists — and on the pressures required to have sufficient of it in a single place to do something helpful, it leaks. Each time it strikes from container to container or piece of apparatus to piece of apparatus, a bit leaks. When it’s liquified for long-distance trucking, for instance, it turns again right into a fuel on the street and will get vented.
The mixture signifies that for hydrogen-powered automobiles, a median of 10% of the hydrogen is prone to be vented from manufacturing to entering into the gas cell.
This isn’t new information, by the way in which. In 1976, Paul Crutzen (a Nobel Prize-winning atmospheric chemist) and Dieter Ehhalt had been among the many first to suggest that hydrogen might not directly affect the ambiance by interacting with the hydroxyl radical (OH). OH is essential in regulating methane’s lifetime within the ambiance. Hydrogen competes with methane for OH, extending methane’s atmospheric lifespan, thereby growing its greenhouse impact. In a pivotal 2001 examine, Richard Derwent and colleagues quantified how hydrogen leakage might not directly enhance methane ranges by decreasing OH concentrations. The 2023 multi-author Sand et al examine revealed in Nature solely clarified how unhealthy the issue was, not that there was an issue.
Industrial use of hydrogen within the twentieth century noticed quite a few explosions linked to leaks, notably within the rising oil refining and chemical processing sectors of the 1910s and Twenties. Varied industrial accidents led to security rules about detection, air flow, and the like. That hydrogen leaks is extremely well-known. It’s minimized as a lot as doable in business as a result of it’s costly, nevertheless it’s largely been a matter of attempting to stop individuals from dying or being injured, so correct estimates of leakage charges have been few and much between.
However now the information is coming in. A hydrogen refueling station in California was seeing 35% leakage charges and it took years of remediation and fixes to deliver it right down to 2% to 10% leakage, simply on the web site. A hydrogen electrolysis and refueling plant in Europe was seeing over 2% to 4% leakage. A US DOE report on hydrogen boil-off made it clear that even very high-volume refueling stations refilled with liquid hydrogen would see 2% losses simply from that a part of the worth chain.
Principally, you must make hydrogen in industrial-scale electrolysis vegetation which might be carefully monitored and maintained by skilled chemical processing engineering professionals and use the hydrogen on the identical location and instantly as a feedstock within the manufacturing of one thing that doesn’t leak to have low leakage charges of the stuff. Make it in a small electrolysis facility at a bus storage or dockside for ferries and the small plant will leak like a sieve. Truck it anyplace and leakage happens. Transferring it from an electrolyzer to a pressurized tank will see leakage. Liquifying it can see leakage. Pumping it right into a truck, ferry, or rail automotive will see leakage.
The perfect state of affairs I assessed was a plan to place an electrolyzer beside a bus storage in Winnipeg, which has exceptionally low carbon depth electrical energy, about 1.3 grams per kWh, about nearly as good because it’s doable to get. In that state of affairs, between manufacturing and leakage, I estimated {that a} hydrogen gas cell bus would have 15 to 16 instances the carbon emissions per kilometer as simply utilizing the electrical energy in a battery electrical bus. And Winnipeg discovered that was too costly, and pivoted to a methanol reformer because the plan, asserting falsely that it was low emissions too. In precise truth, as methanol has excessive carbon emissions in manufacturing, a bus stuffed with hydrogen made out of methanol would have 3.2 instances the emissions of a diesel bus.
Naturally, the hydrogen-for-energy crowd haven’t been remotely clear about this drawback. Like the intense inefficiency of hydrogen-for-energy pathways, the truth that inexperienced hydrogen will at all times be costly, and the unreliability of gas cells, most of them are in denial. Those that aren’t in denial are those deliberately delaying decarbonization who don’t care.
These realities are catching as much as corporations which were attempting to make hydrogen automobiles, therefore my prediction for subsequent yr. I’m fairly positive that not less than one in every of Plug Energy, FuelCell Power, or Ballard will lastly disappear, presumably all three. They’re buying and selling for pennies on the greenback in comparison with the 2021 miniblip, by no means thoughts the early 2000 maxiblip. Ballard Energy has by no means made a revenue, dropping a median of $55 million yearly since 2000, $1.3 billion in whole. Even the hydrogen devoted finally will reduce their losses, eat the capital positive aspects loss for tax breaks, and put money into one thing helpful.
I count on that not less than one of many main truck and bus corporations that’s attempting to do each battery electrical and hydrogen will observe Quantron out of business, in all probability Van Hool or New Flyer. As I famous, hydrogen is interesting due to increased unit costs per automobile, however each hydrogen truck or bus a agency sells seemingly prices it 3–5 unit gross sales of battery electrical automobiles due to extra company overhead, failure to enhance battery electrical automobiles to be aggressive, and deeply sad prospects. It’s a recipe for market share loss, not achieve.
No less than one main western bus producer will abandon hydrogen gas cell buses, possibly Solaris. Norway will lastly cease attempting to construct hydrogen ferries and change the only operational hydrogen ferry — 2x the emissions of a diesel ferry, 40x the emissions of a battery electrical ferry on the identical route, 10x the power price of a battery electrical ferry — with battery electrical.
However Christmas got here early for this prediction. Exit Hyzon from the scene. It was based in 2020 as a spin-off of Horizon Gas Cell Applied sciences, specializing in heavy-duty industrial purposes resembling vehicles and buses. Headquartered in Rochester, New York, the corporate developed proprietary gas cell techniques concentrating on increased energy density and sooner refueling instances. With operations spanning Europe, Asia, and Australia, Hyzon collaborated with native companions in a useless try to construct hydrogen ecosystems, together with refueling infrastructure, to help FCEV adoption. Regardless of all the issues listed above and the failures to ascertain hydrogen ecosystems, Hyzon solid forward, signing agreements for fleet deployments and taking part in pilot initiatives worldwide. I’d have included Horizon on the inventory chart above, by the way in which, nevertheless it’s privately held not publicly traded so it’s solely dropping cash for its non-public traders, like mining large Anglo American.
Now all of these contracts and agreements are well worth the paper that they’re printed on, nothing.
Hyzon filed for Chapter 11 chapter safety on December twentieth of 2024. The submitting follows a protracted interval of economic instability, operational challenges, and restructuring efforts aimed toward stabilizing the corporate. Hyzon’s choice to file for chapter mirrored its incapacity to safe ample financing or implement efficient strategic options, regardless of earlier efforts to downsize its operations in markets just like the Netherlands and Australia. The corporate had additionally been coping with reputational injury stemming from a settlement with the SEC in 2023 over allegations of deceptive traders.
What was that final half? Oh, in fact, Hyzon was a particular objective acquisition firm (SPAC), and like most of these Wall Avenue bro enriching automobiles, was a rip-off to dupe cash out of retail traders. Hyzon was on my 2022 record of cleantech SPACs that had been going to finish badly. The chart above is of 56 cleantech SPAC corporations whose shares had been pumped then dumped by the Wall Avenue bros. About 60% of them had SEC fees in opposition to them. A whole lot of them are heading for chapter, saddled with absurdly inflated expectations and much too little capital because the Wall Avenue bros took as a lot as 65% of it in some offers. After pumping, Hyzon was briefly price $850 per share. Now it’s inventory, quickly to be delisted, is price $1.12. The Wall Avenue bros made out like bandits.
Hydrogen and hydrogen transportation was a theme amongst SPACs. Nikola Company went public in June 2020 by way of a SPAC merger with VectoIQ Acquisition Corp., valued at roughly $3.3 billion. Shortly after, the corporate confronted fraud allegations from the aptly named Hindenburg Analysis in September 2020, claiming Nikola had misled traders about its know-how and capabilities. Investigations by the SEC and DOJ adopted, resulting in the conviction of founder Trevor Milton in 2022 on three counts of fraud. Nikola agreed to pay a $125 million nice in 2021 to settle SEC fees for deceiving traders by way of deceptive public statements.
Who doesn’t keep in mind Nikola’s pretty video of a hydrogen truck driving lengthy a freeway that was faked by towing a truck to the highest of a hill and letting it roll down from there? Par for the course for hydrogen transportation performs.
Hyzon Motors misled traders by making false statements about its enterprise relationships and automobile gross sales. The corporate falsely claimed to have delivered its first hydrogen gas cell electrical automobile in July 2021, even releasing a deceptive video suggesting the automobile was operational on hydrogen when it was not geared up to take action. Moreover, Hyzon reported promoting 87 FCEVs in 2021, when in actuality, no such gross sales had occurred that yr. These actions led to settled fraud fees by the SEC in September 2023.
However now its false claims — “Delivering heavy obligation transport, with out emissions” – are gone. No less than it received’t be charged with with false promoting for its greenwashing, so there’s that, I assume. As I at all times say to good engineers and others in hydrogen corporations, get out now or not less than begin getting out. It’s going to finish badly and also you aren’t truly doing something for the setting.
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