Lengthy-Time period Tesla Quarterly Gross sales Charts & Graphs — They Sting!

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Final Up to date on: fifth April 2025, 03:06 am

One of many massive tales of the week has been Tesla’s poor Q1 2025 gross sales numbers, with the model dropping 13% yr over yr (after already having a YoY gross sales drop in Q1 2024). That is particularly painful for an organization that was alleged to be rising 50% a yr on common within the 2020s, in accordance with CEO Elon Musk (although, he’s been quiet about that beforehand constant prediction recently).

Nevertheless, wanting on the quarterly and YoY figures simply provides a glimpse of the problem. Placing collectively the long-term quarterly gross sales charts that I’ve been creating for Tesla up to now a number of years, the issue stood out to me rather more. Take a look beneath and see what you suppose. By some means, the truth of the drop simply hits rather more these. The drop in gross sales within the context of Tesla’s beforehand gross sales development actually stings.

As you may see within the chart and graph above, Tesla noticed an unprecedented, huge drop in gross sales in Q1 2025. It’s by no means had such a dramatic drop in gross sales — quarter over quarter or yr over yr. In reality, on a quarterly foundation, Tesla has had nearly no year-over-year gross sales drops. So, the beginning of 2025, particularly on the again of a weak 2024, is hanging and signifies to many {that a} shut eye ought to be saved on Tesla gross sales traits in 2025. It’s entire story (traditionally a narrative of development, huge development) might be shifting. Many followers don’t consider it — or don’t need to consider it — however it’s a transparent risk and there are just a few massive explanation why it might be occurring and might be the EV story of 2025.

One final observe earlier than sharing the remaining charts: Tesla solely experiences Mannequin 3 & Mannequin Y gross sales numbers collectively and Mannequin S & Mannequin X & Cybertruck numbers all mixed as effectively. We don’t have exact numbers for every mannequin. (That’s been an enormous gripe for years, and I feel it’s a bit absurd that an automaker of its dimension isn’t extra clear on mannequin gross sales, however it’s what it’s.) Consequently, to create these charts, I’ve to make use of varied sources and make some assumptions with the intention to provide you with model-specific gross sales estimates. These are simply estimates. We’ll get extra knowledge within the coming month and be capable to higher see how the gross sales break up out by mannequin. Importantly, developing with the estimates for Mannequin Y vs. Mannequin 3 gross sales was particularly tough this quarter because of the new Mannequin Y popping out and Mannequin Y manufacturing traces being shut down for a notable time period with the intention to replace them for the brand new Mannequin Y.

Importantly, whereas there may be some excuse for Mannequin Y gross sales being down, Mannequin 3 gross sales additionally look like down considerably, and there’s not likely an excuse for that! Altering over the manufacturing traces for the Mannequin Y shouldn’t be affecting the Mannequin 3 like this. Additionally, its debatable whether or not the Mannequin Y ought to actually be going through such a major decline itself regardless of the manufacturing line disruption. However I feel we actually must see what occurs within the subsequent quarter or three to make any strong conclusions on traits for that mannequin.

Whereas it doesn’t stand out within the floor with the graph and chart above, when you concentrate on it for a second, the dearth of gross sales from the Cybertruck is hanging. This mannequin was supposed to supply an enormous enhance to Tesla gross sales, the subsequent avenue for ongoing auto gross sales development for the corporate. However it appears to be a dud. It’s nearly invisible right here, and already apparently going within the unsuitable path! Yikes. For that matter, Mannequin S and Mannequin X gross sales are additionally down. That might not be tremendous important to the corporate’s story or funds, however it’s not good! Gross sales volumes had already dropped loads up to now a number of years, however they received to a concerningly low stage in Q1. (And, once more, there’s no first rate justification for this, not like the case Tesla followers and shareholders have been making for the Mannequin Y.)

Now we’ve received the cumulative gross sales charts. This primary one, utilizing official numbers, exhibits a shift from exponential development to, probably, a flattening of development. Simply visualizing the place issues go from right here, it’s simple to see the road on the prime getting flatter. In fact, that may change with a surge in gross sales from the brand new Mannequin Y (and/or Cybertruck). However, for now, we now have an apparent breaking of the historic development — even this cumulative gross sales chart.

Utilizing our estimates for the Mannequin 3 versus Mannequin Y gross sales break up, it’s the same story — only a bit much less pronounced wanting on the Mannequin 3 chart, which isn’t traditionally as spectacular because the Mannequin Y’s.

Does the rest important stand out to you when these charts and graphs? And the place is Tesla going from right here?

To wrap up, beneath are interactive variations of those charts and graphs, in addition to one further chart the place you may pop from one mannequin to the subsequent. Get pleasure from! (Observe: these are finest seen and performed with on an actual pc, not a cellphone.)