Legacy Automakers’ Historical past of Sluggish-Strolling, Their “Me Too” Second, & What Subsequent?

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We have now numerous nice feedback on articles right here on CleanTechnica each day. Nevertheless, typically a remark jumps out to me as one which ought to be an article itself. The next remark below an article I wrote on Friday is a kind of:

“For years, legacy automakers actively tried to place the kibosh on EVs, and so they practically succeeded. As an alternative of embracing EVs, they did the whole lot they may to make sure that ICE vehicles remained the dominant type of transportation. It’s not a coincidence that in August of 2018, the brief stability on TSLA was simply over $13bn, one of many largest brief positions in historical past. By the tip of 2018, TSLA was on a skyward trajectory and gaining steam. It took a full yr for automakers like gm to comprehend that that they had squandered alternatives to be leaders within the EV market, so that they did the one factor they may on the time… leap on the ‘Me Too’ wagon. The picture of Arnold Horshack franticly waving his hand in Mr. Kotter’s class involves thoughts. In 2020, gm had promised 20 new electrical autos by 2023, backed by press releases, which is one thing that many readers on this web site give her and gm a move on.”

Certainly — there are some superb factors right here. That is mainly the collection of key factors we heard from legacy automakers within the US over the previous 15 years:

• Electrical vehicles are impractical and can by no means be greater than a sliver of the auto market. (In the meantime, visionaries — a few of our readers included — and early EV leaders like Tesla lengthy predicted EVs would take over the market.)
• Electrical vehicles are too costly and the batteries are usually not adequate for the mass market. We’ll want a breakthrough in solid-state batteries for EVs to turn into widespread.
• EV charging isn’t ample, so individuals can’t depend on EVs. (Tesla, in fact, constructed out the Supercharging community, fixing this subject for the small share of journeys which might be lengthy distance and for patrons who don’t have house or office charging.)
• EVs are getting longer vary and extra widespread, however they’re nonetheless too costly.
• Oh, Tesla’s gross sales soared and its inventory priced shot by the higher ambiance? Oh, yeah, we’re 100% going to paved the way on EVs, too!
• We’re so going to destroy Norway in relation to EVs. [Side note: Still don’t understand what that was supposed to mean.]
• (Oh, crap, our inventory worth didn’t jack up from these bulletins.)
• (Tesla’s gross sales surge is lastly dying off and so they’re stagnating or dropping?! Sure, now could be our second!)
• Nicely, sadly, individuals simply don’t need EVs as a lot as we thought and we’re going to reduce our electrical automobile plans (and advertising).

And don’t even get me began in regards to the hydrogen hype.

The purpose is that there are numerous within the auto trade, the oil trade, and the laggard trade who’ve by no means needed a fast transition to electrical autos (or any transition to electrical autos), who felt dragged alongside by the keenness for EVs and development in EV gross sales for some time, and who now wish to sluggish us down and drag us again once more.

I feel that Tesla remains to be crucial to driving the trade ahead and pushing different automakers to impress sooner, particularly so long as Chinese language EVs are all however banned within the US. It’s due to this fact all of the extra annoying and distressing that Elon Musk has been throwing the Tesla model within the mud as a lot as he has, whereas additionally spreading nonsensical misinformation about local weather change. The one plus facet I see right here is that if lots of people who would have purchased Teslas as an alternative select to purchase different manufacturers’ EVs, that would encourage them to provide and promote extra EVs. Possibly.

Returning to that bullet checklist, what’s subsequent? What are legacy automakers’ subsequent strikes going to be? I, someway, haven’t truly considered this an excessive amount of, and I don’t know. Will they revive a “we’re EV leaders!” perspective and advertising marketing campaign once more? Will they largely ignore EVs and produce and promote comparatively few fashions for the subsequent a number of months or years? Will any of them attempt to stand properly above the gang and go 100% electrical by the subsequent Olympics? Will they watch their general gross sales shrink an increasing number of as they turn into much less aggressive in additional markets all over the world (as has been occurring in China)? What are your ideas on this?