High 10 Nations within the EV Revolution in 2022, Half 1: Positions 4–10

By Assaf Oron

Welcome to my ninth annual prime 10 international locations checklist! This 12 months marks the primary time it’s printed completely on CleanTechnica (the 2021 checklist was mirrored right here final 12 months, see Half 1 and Half 2).

It’s also the most recent I’ve ever printed the checklist — properly, that’s with a prolonged kitchen renovation (and me insisting on cooking weekday dinners within the basement), being the principle walker for a brand new pet, a pair weeks’ journey, a convention speak, and toiling away on a brand new R package deal, all atop the full-time jobs of working for The Man and co-running a busy family. There’s been no scarcity of excuses to interrupt the custom! However a labor of affection is a labor of affection, all the time value it. (Proper?) So, right here it’s.

And what an EV 12 months 2022 was!

• For the 2nd time in 3 years, EVs proved their resilience within the face of an enormous world problem. A shout-out to the general public (and sometimes additionally the management) of many international locations, who in spring 2022 identical to in spring 2020 stared into the face of an enormous disaster upending their lives by means of no fault of their very own, and have been subsequently uncovered to the lazy and corrupt standard media knowledge telling us “Okay, now could be no time for these foolish environmental video games, let’s be ‘grownups’ and play it ‘protected’ and return to full fossil” — and as soon as once more the general public and lots of leaders stated NO, the one manner ahead is cleaner vitality and extra EVs.

• Even Europe, which was hit smack within the face with a serious conflict, managed to lift the continental EV share from 19% to 23% and continued the swap from PHEVs to BEVs. And China merely went stratospheric final 12 months.

• Globally, EVs crossed the virtually significant thresholds of 10 million annual light-duty EV gross sales and 10% world market share, ending round 13–14%, versus ~8% in 2021. The slight fuzziness in numbers (see “Disclaimers” beneath) has to do with the place one attracts the road between “light-duty autos” and the remainder, and whether or not the info to attract these traces equitably can be found. Anyway, along with a pointy rise in hybrid (HEV) gross sales, crossing these thresholds may imply that World Peak Oil Demand is already behind us — however that’s a special story to ponder elsewhere.

• The Tesla Mannequin Y was the world’s 4th greatest promoting car in 2022, with ~770,000 deliveries, together with >100,000 in December. It’s far and away the highest-ever spot for an EV. Famously, it’s now within the working for 2023’s #1 spot … we’ll all keep tuned, I’m positive. Tesla additionally broke the 1M/12 months gross sales barrier in 2022, however was overtaken by BYD, which greater than tripled its output to almost 1.9M! (That’s roughly half PHEVs, however per Jose Pontes, these are sturdy PHEVs.)

• Each Germany and the US joined China within the choose Million-EV-Making-Nations Membership (>1M/12 months, that’s). Nicely, China already made >6M of them final 12 months, a transparent majority of the worldwide output.

• 3 new international locations joined the predominantly European membership of >10% EV gross sales share, and none of them are in Europe! (South Korea, Israel, and New Zealand.)

• 4 different international locations joined the (additionally predominantly European) 100,000 gross sales/12 months membership: the Netherlands, Belgium, Canada, and … in the end, Japan (sigh).

Credit/Guidelines/Disclaimers

1. Enormous due to Jose Pontes, who (in addition to writing beautiful EV gross sales reviews right here) leads the official EU alternative-fuel car observatory, the place I acquired most of my European knowledge (and sure, they’re nonetheless monitoring the UK, too!). Jose’s reviews listed here are additionally most of my sources for China. The Worldwide Vitality Company (IEA)’s World EV Outlook report has additionally been extremely helpful. The remainder, I’ve cobbled collectively myself.

2. (Talking of which: CleanTechnica editors, please do discover somebody to cowl the East Asian beat. With two big EV/battery-making international locations and the world’s fundamental photo voltaic/wind producer in that area, we want a regional insider to have the ability to get these essential tales proper.)

3. Some numbers in Europe could look completely different from what you noticed on CleanTechnica, as a result of I’ve added light-commercial car gross sales to the numerator and denominator to make the comparability with different areas equitable (by way of prevalence and utilization, European gentle vans are roughly equal to US pickup vehicles — however in contrast to the latter, typically they’re counted individually).

4. My checklist, my labor, my scoring guidelines. 🙂 I’m extending an open invitation to affix the challenge in future years and assist set the principles. I did solicit others’ enter over time, together with in fact Jose’s. Of observe, although, this 12 months I haven’t modified or recalibrated any scoring algorithm — so scores are straight comparable with final 12 months.

5. The rating is multi-faceted somewhat than representing solely shopper gross sales. This can be a world problem, to which completely different international locations can contribute in several methods, and the massive image should be in view. Benefit goes to international locations that contribute in a number of methods. There’s additionally plenty of bonus for price of enchancment over 2021. This makes the checklist extra dynamic and attention-grabbing, IMHO.

6. One rule is that when a world automaker units up an meeting plant in a foreign country (e.g., the Shanghai Gigafactory), the manufacturing credit score normally will get cut up 50:50 between the “dwelling” and “meeting” nation. In instances with extra native management (e.g., Volvo Vehicles or Wuling), the meeting nation will get extra. That is simply to keep away from confusion relating to my EV-making numbers by nation.

Okay, sufficient futzing round … let’s checklist these international locations!

tenth place, 52 factors (tie): Denmark & Finland (tied for eighth in 2021)

Spoiler: like in 2021, each single Scandinavian nation made the highest 10 (properly … this time it’s actually the highest 11). Denmark and Finland spherical out “the underside” of the area, which interprets to almost 34% EV market share final 12 months for every. Denmark is the one which caught up with Finland, which suggests it will get extra factors for year-over-year enchancment. Conversely, in accordance with the IEA, Finland’s new buses in 2022 have been two-thirds BEV, versus “solely” one-third in Denmark. Each are properly above the continental common, which is nudging 10%. So, the tie continues.

eighth place, 54 factors (tie): Iceland (sixth in 2021) & Belgium (first look!)

In contrast to Denmark and Finland, Iceland has been a prime 10 fixture for some time, with its EV market share second on the earth behind Norway’s. Final 12 months, it solely barely nudged forward from 65% to 66%, and different motion was scant, therefore the two.5-spot slide.

Belgium has been lurking slightly below the highest 10 for some time, with an EV market dominated by luxurious PHEVs. The combination is turning into extra balanced, with 2022 gross sales touchdown simply above 100,000 and rising from 19% to 24% market share. What distinguishes Belgium from a handful of otherwise-similar European international locations is that it additionally makes fairly a couple of EVs, and that quantity is rising: Belgian meeting vegetation are chargeable for the Audi e-tron, and for a proportion of Volvo’s BEV/PHEV output. Lastly, home bus maker Van Hool is into hydrogen buses, however has began dabbling an increasing number of in BEVs and PHEVs.

 

seventh place, 55 factors: The US (seventh in 2021)

The truth that the US, regardless of a 12 months of sturdy advances, has remained on this place demonstrates how dynamic the EV world is. Home EV-share-wise, the US remains to be a number of years behind, and never making up plenty of floor but, with 2022 enhancing from 4.1% to six.6%. This enhance appears extra spectacular volume-wise, virtually(?) reaching 1M gross sales and regaining the world’s #2 quantity spot from Germany.

With out Tesla, the US would have been nowhere close to the highest 20, not to mention 10. Nonetheless, different US automakers in addition to Tesla confirmed extra indicators of life final 12 months vs. earlier years. The Inflation Discount Act handed in 2022 improves future prospects for gross sales, and much more so, for EV manufacturing and battery manufacturing within the US. Specifically, it would assist dilute China’s present monopoly over anode and cathode supplies.

That stated, the IRA’s incomprehensible and admittedly ludicrous consumer-rebate guidelines (e.g., the Nissan Leaf, which has been assembled within the US since 2013, is immediately ineligible by some means), and the closely-related saga of continued abuse of EVs by the Republican Occasion as culture-war targets, recommend that the street forward remains to be bumpy.

That the particular person atop Mighty Tesla, of all individuals, determined in 2022 to completely ally himself emotionally and politically with that exact same virulently anti-EV political social gathering, and to place down $44B of his (and the silly banks’) cash to be able to additional promote the Republicans’ mendacious tradition wars, just isn’t solely mind-blowingly weird and intensely self-contradictory, however once more factors in the direction of how blended and precarious the US EV scene continues to be.

sixth place, 57 factors: The Netherlands (tied for eighth in 2021)

The Dutch hop-skipped previous the US, EV share rising from 25% to a Scandinavian-style 34%. This once-volatile EV market appears to have hit its stride, and has additionally efficiently switched from PHEV-dominated to >70% BEV. Home bus maker VDL almost doubled its BEV deliveries to 344 and is as soon as once more a viable competitor for the continent’s e-bus management.

fifth place, 63 factors: South Korea (third in 2021)

Observe the bounce in factors! We’re coming into the Huge Leagues, and right here solely constant stellar efficiency will get you a medal these days. South Korea has heaps going for it:

• EV manufacturing rose from ~300,000 to ~500,000, with most of those going to export — extremely essential for supplying international locations that don’t have an auto trade.

• Korea might be the worldwide chief in light-commercial BEVs by market share. The 36,000 Porter 2 and Bongo BEV utility vehicles have been 27% of all light-commercial autos offered in Korea final 12 months, the results of a beneficiant and sensible social-equity authorities subsidy — as individuals utilizing such vehicles are sometimes household farms and small companies (constituencies that are additionally typically unaware, or suspicious, of EVs).

• These LCVS helped Korea nudge into two-digit territory, total EV share rising from 7% to almost 11%, virtually all BEVs.

• Korea continues to be the world’s #2 EV battery nation, each by home manufacturing and by company share.

That stated, it’s turning into a an increasing number of distant #2, with Korean battery firms falling from 30.2% to 23.7% of worldwide manufacturing. This has taken Korea’s battery rating down a notch, which means it has solely gained 1 level over final 12 months — sufficient to be overtaken by two different international locations!

4th place, 65 factors: Germany (fifth in 2021)

Germany gained a full 7 factors over 2021 …

• Opposite to my superficial impression over the previous 12 months, seems that in 2022, BMW and to some extent additionally Mercedes-Benz have truly began getting severe about BEVs, and never simply minimal PHEVs. With Volkswagen Group on the helm, overcoming its supply-chain challenges midyear, German EV manufacturing each surged from 800,000 to 1.3 million — skipping previous the US to turn out to be 2nd on the earth — and have become majority BEV for the primary(?) time.

• With the scepter of consumer-incentive cuts on January 1, 2023, a December surge introduced Germany’s home EV gross sales share from 24% in 2021 to 29% in 2022, 2nd-best in non-Scandinavia Europe (after the Netherlands) and a greater enhance than a lot of its continental rivals.

• Mercedes and MAN each improved their e-bus making numbers, with Mercedes #3 in Europe deliveries final 12 months and #1 amongst “homegrown” European automakers.

… however this rise was nonetheless not sufficient for the 2022 podium.

Who’s on the rostrum then? Search for Half 2 quickly!