Flaws within the Robotaxi Revolution Dream

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Final Up to date on: twenty fifth April 2025, 03:12 am

This isn’t the primary time it’s been stated, and it received’t be the final, as a result of the concept of a dramatic robotaxi revolution carries on. And, sure, I’ll admit that I used to be a heavy proponent of that for a very long time. Nevertheless, the purpose we’re making on this piece is that there are some critical flaws in the concept many individuals will swap from automotive possession to utilizing robotaxis.

This text was triggered by a reader remark, so let’s simply get to that remark and provides credit score the place credit score’s due.

Beneath my article discussing whether or not Tesla robotaxis could be revenue or loss facilities, “eveee” offered the next remark:

Are you taking a taxi to work every single day and again? Nope.

What precisely are robotaxis going to interchange? Not buses. Not trains. Rental automobiles?

You recognize why it’s actually not critical? As a result of it doesn’t ask what taxis are used for at the moment.

Why don’t taxis already exchange all different types of transportation now?

Why would making taxis cheaper exchange all different types of transportation?

Merely put, taxis can not exchange all different types of transport. In actual fact, taxis can not even exchange automobiles for all makes use of. It’s merely not potential.

Why? There are such a lot of causes. Let’s begin with a easy one.

Visitors Congestion. In each metropolis the place rideshare has been launched and taxi use elevated, visitors congestion elevated. Why is that? Is it only a coincidence? Nope.

Car Miles Traveled. VMT. Any critical dialogue of transportation contains it. Not a phrase of it right here. Exhibits amateurism. Each properly educated transportation skilled is aware of this. Simply why is that necessary? For one, taxis drive to select up passengers. They don’t begin out parked in your driveway earlier than you go to work, they usually don’t park at work whenever you go residence. They at all times use further miles to select up passengers. VMT will increase. Meaning extra congestion as a result of automobiles are on the highway extra usually.

Right here’s one other one, however its associated. House. Not outer house. Visitors house. The quantity of house per passenger is highest in a single occupant automotive. Buses, trains, shuttles, stroll, bike, all occupy much less house. There’s solely a lot room on the highway. Extra automobiles, extra visitors, extra congestion.

Not simply in cities, however on any highway house. Particularly any closely travelled highway, and particularly at intersections. You’ll be able to hit a visitors jam removed from the town on closely trafficked roads on vacation weekends. Everybody is aware of that or ought to notice it.

To this point, between VMT and house, its inconceivable to interchange all transport and even simply common automobiles with taxis, as a result of it merely doesn’t work. Its a dumb concept, poorly thought out.

It misses the idea that transportation isn’t just about objects like automobiles or different automobiles. Its concerning the transportation system, roads and all, and the way it works.

However sadly, as soon as poor considering will get going, it hardly ever stops. There’s extra. A lot.. extra.

Simply precisely how do taxis exchange all automobiles with much less taxis? There are the reason why that may by no means occur. How do you transport the identical variety of folks the identical variety of miles with the identical sort of automobile in the identical period of time and with much less automobiles? You can not. Its inconceivable. Mathematically and bodily.

The entire argument is bunk. Time is restricted. You wouldn’t have 24 hours to get to work. It needs to be completed in two quick rush hour durations of time.

That is the Seba impact. Seba talks. Considering stops.

Nice factors. Nevertheless, I’ve acquired just a few variations on the important thing arguments right here and the place robotaxis have critical drawbacks on the subject of each attracting passengers and making a revenue doing so.

• Because the reader factors out, robotaxis truly add to driving, as they should drive way more to get you from level A to level B after which again to level A later within the day. They should drive from wherever they’re (“level Z”) and get you, then take you the place you need to go, after which drive some place else. That further driving comes at a value. So, any value benefit from a robotaxi automobile being shared can truly rapidly get worn out by miles pushed going up lots. (Observe: eveee focuses on further visitors congestion when discussing this, however I feel the hot button is actually that the additional VMT provides put on & tear and gasoline use, or value, to the robotaxi in comparison with a privately owned automotive.)
• Alongside the same line, the variety of automobiles wanted in all probability wouldn’t go down as a lot because it’s usually hyped. We’re all acquainted with rush hour, when the most important portion of persons are driving to or from work and college. All of these folks nonetheless want a automotive on the identical time. So, you’ll be able to’t say Robotaxi #1 goes to drive each me and my neighbor the place we have to go, chopping down on the variety of automobiles on the highway, and automobile possession prices. Robotaxi #1 will drive me and Robotaxi #2 will drive my neighbor. Companies like Uber and Lyft take care of this concern through surge pricing, or no matter it’s known as today. It prices way more to get a experience throughout high-volume durations. That’s going to stay a core concern, and no robodriver goes to remove the issue.
• A 3rd level not addressed above is that almost all of us use our automobiles to retailer stuff we’ll want at totally different occasions of the day, or every now and then. If we’re going to play tennis after work, we’ve our tennis baggage within the automotive. Now we’re going to take these out and in of labor, our children’ faculty, the grocery retailer, and many others.? What about procuring, by the way in which? We frequently buy groceries — for meals or items — and the depart these purchases within the automotive when going elsewhere. Only for my little household of 4, I usually pack the automotive with groceries and family provides in between faculty runs; physician, orthodontist, and dentist visits; or different errands. Ditching the automotive for robotaxis, I’m now going to carry these baggage and baggage round with me from place to position? Or would I’ve a robotaxi someway simply anticipate me at every place? (Very unrealistic.) Then there are umbrellas for wet days, sure paperwork, pc baggage, hand sanitizer, snacks, numerous drinks, telephone chargers….

In brief, it simply appears unrealistic that robotaxis are going to take over the world. Sure, they might properly exchange human-driven taxis. That looks like a given. Nevertheless, the concept they may make an enormous portion of automotive house owners ditch their automotive appears unlikely to ever grow to be actuality.