EVs at 22.8% share in Germany – Volkswagen Group Dominating Residence Floor

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November noticed plugin EVs at 22.8% share in Germany, down from 25.7% 12 months on 12 months. BEV gross sales had been down YoY, although from an elevated baseline, whereas PHEV gross sales had been up 14%. November’s total auto quantity was 244,544 items, roughly flat YoY. The perfect promoting BEV in November was once more the Skoda Enyaq, for the third month operating.

November’s gross sales noticed mixed EVs at 22.8% share in Germany, with full electrics (BEVs) at 14.4% share, and plugin hybrids (PHEVs) at 8.4%. These evaluate with YoY figures of 25.7% mixed, 18.3% BEV and seven.4% PHEV.

The YoY baseline for BEV gross sales (November 2023) was increased than normal because of a pull-forward forward of the looming scheduled discount within the BEV buy incentive from January 1st 2024. As we now know, the motivation was actually not merely diminished from January 1st, however as a substitute was summarily cancelled with none discover, in mid December 2023. That baseline pull-forward makes the YoY comparability look significantly weak.

Nonetheless – even placing apart the YoY comparability – BEV gross sales and market share would usually be growing barely as we strategy the top of a 12 months, when producers look to enhance their fleet-average automobile emissions forward of the end-of-December deadline. This 12 months, nonetheless, there’s no tightening of emission necessities, so no such push by auto markers – if something, they’re motivated to decelerate new BEV deliveries and drag them into 2025, when tighter emissions guidelines do come into impact.

Concurrently, the demand facet stays weighed down by a weak client economic system, and BEVs being nonetheless overpriced relative to different powertrains. The tighter 2025 emission guidelines are the principle motive why European legacy manufacturers are solely now — on the finish of 2024 — beginning to launch their easy and extra reasonably priced BEVs, and are planning to extend their quantity within the coming few months, to enhance their BEV gross sales in 2025. This timing is just not a coincidence.

On the plus facet, there was an honest enhance in PHEV volumes YoY, because of the brand new era of fashions which now usually have over 50 miles of all electrical vary. With plugless HEV gross sales additionally rising, combustion-only share declined YoY (although much less so than BEV share).

The gradual however regular decline in diesel gross sales noticed their share attain 14.9% in November, down from 16.1% YoY. 

Finest Promoting BEVs

For the third month in a row the Skoda Enyaq took the highest spot within the BEV mannequin rankings, with 3,066 items in November.

In second place was the Volkswagen ID.7, with 2,613 items, and the Volkswagen ID.4/ID.5 got here in third, with 2,394 items.

With the Cupra Born in 4th spot, November was one other good lead to its dwelling marketplace for Volkswagen Group, and a uncommon repeat of the identical domination of the highest 4 spots (with the identical 4 fashions) seen in October.

Volkswagen Group grabbing the highest 4 spots has solely occurred as soon as earlier than, in April of this 12 months. Normally the Tesla Mannequin Y spoils the get together by showing someplace within the high 3, however was in fifth spot in November.

The general high 20 ranks didn’t see any enormous surprises, with nearly all fashions being near their latest common volumes, and the one newcomers to the highest 20 being the Audi Q6 and Porsche Macan (each of which had been largely anticipated).

October’s new consumption of BEV fashions – the Kia EV3, Ford Capri, Citroen e-C3, and Volvo EX90 – all grew additional in November, with the Kia and Ford the strongest, as much as positions 30, and 51, respectively.

Extra BEV mannequin debutantes arrived in November. The very best quantity mannequin  – at 103 items – was the brand new Leapmotor T03, a small-and-affordable hatchback which has lastly arrived in Europe because of a partnership between Stellantis and Chinese language EV startup Leapmotor (based in 2015). For the Leapmotor T03’s fundamental specs, see my report on China’s reasonably priced BEVs from early this 12 months. It’s priced from €18,900 in Germany, with a 37.3 kWh (gross) battery.

Leapmotor didn’t cease there, the model additionally launched the C10, a mid-large SUV (4,739 mm), which registered a modest 9 preliminary items. The C10 is priced from €36,400 for the 66 kWh (usable) battery variant.

The brand new Skoda Elroq additionally launched in November, with 46 items registered. The Elroq is actually a shortened model of the Enyaq, with a size of 4,488 mm vs the Enyaq’s 4,648 mm. It has the identical wheelbase, and shares the identical doorways, entrance wings and far of the inside, however the rear is foreshortened, with much less of an overhang. The entry worth for the Skoda Elroq’s 52 kWh (usable) variant is €33,900 in Germany.

Lastly, the BYD Sealion SUV additionally launched in November, with 50 items. The Sealion is BYD’s new mid-large SUV Coupe, with a size of 4,830 mm. For an outline of the BYD Sealion, see the latest Norway report. The Sealion is priced from €47,990 in Germany, for a properly specified “entry” 91.3 kWh variant.

We’ll regulate these newcomers to see how they get on within the coming months.

Let’s now verify in with the 3-month rating:

Due to a few robust months, Volkswagen Group manufacturers now maintain the highest 3 spots, with the identical three fashions as within the November month-to-month rating — the Skoda Enyaq, Volkswagen ID.7, and Volkswagen ID.4 / ID.5.

There aren’t any nice surprises elsewhere within the high 20, apart from the progress additional again by two newcomers. The Porsche Macan has been an awesome hit in its quick time available on the market, climbing to sixteenth spot after simply 4 months on sale. That is significantly spectacular given the excessive worth level and the truth that the very comparable (and in addition spectacular) Audi Q6 e-tron is on the market for a cheaper price.

Additional again, in nineteenth spot, the Ford Explorer has additionally completed properly, likewise after simply 4 months of quantity gross sales. Let’s see if these two new fashions stay a fixture within the high 20 over the medium-term.

Let’s briefly investigate cross-check the manufacturing group rankings:

 

Volkswagen Group’s robust dwelling lead is evident to see, with close to 45,000 gross sales over the previous 3 months, representing a powerful 42.8% of Germany’s total BEV market. It is a nice enchancment over 33.9% share within the prior 3-month interval (June to August).

The general rating of the highest 6 teams hasn’t modified since August, however the entire dwelling groups pulled forward in comparison with 3 months prior. BMW, in second, gained 1.5% extra share to succeed in 15.2%, whereas Mercedes, in third, gained 2.3% share to succeed in 12.3%. Tesla, Hyundai Motor Group, and Stellantis, every misplaced a few % of market share, although maintained their relative rating.

Outlook

As talked about above, one of many principal explanation why Germany’s BEV share is so weak, is the poor state of the nation’s wider economic system. The most recent YoY GDP figures from Q3 2024 had been just lately recalculated and tweaked downwards to destructive 0.3% (from their 0.2% earlier estimate).

Headline inflation stored on an upward pattern, at 2.2% in November, from 2% in October. ECB rates of interest are nonetheless at 3.4%. Manufacturing PMI didn’t enhance throughout November, and stays weak at (a revised) 43.0 factors, which is flat from October.

As mentioned above, we’ll now have to attend till 2025 to see if the BEV market can get again to a progress trajectory after a depressing 2024 which has suffered from a weak economic system, overpriced BEVs, and few-to-no reasonably priced choices. At the least the tighter emissions laws of 2025 are actually forcing producers to supply extra reasonably priced fashions, to up their volumes, so let’s see if Germany will get again on observe.

What are your ideas for Germany’s prospects for 2025? What fashions are you looking for? Please share your ideas within the feedback part under.